Objective: Traumatic brain injury can be caused by head impacts, but many brain injury risk estimation models are not equally accurate across the variety of impacts that patients may undergo and the characteristics of different types of impacts are not well studied. We investigated the spectral characteristics of different head impact types with kinematics classification. Methods: Data was analyzed from 3,262 head impacts from lab reconstruction, American football, mixed martial arts, and publicly available car crash data. A random forest classifier with spectral densities of linear acceleration and angular velocity was built to classify head impact types (e.g., football, car crash, mixed martial arts). To test the classifier robustness, another 271 lab-reconstructed impacts were obtained from 5 other instrumented mouthguards. Finally, with the classifier, type-specific, nearest-neighbor regression models were built for brain strain. Results: The classifier reached a median accuracy of 96% over 1,000 random partitions of training and test sets. The most important features in the classification included both low-frequency and high-frequency features, both linear acceleration features and angular velocity features. Different head impact types had different distributions of spectral densities in low-frequency and high-frequency ranges (e.g., the spectral densities of MMA impacts were higher in high-frequency range than in the low-frequency range). The type-specific regression showed a generally higher R^2-value than baseline models without classification. Conclusion: The machine-learning-based classifier enables a better understanding of the impact kinematics spectral density in different sports, and it can be applied to evaluate the quality of impact-simulation systems and on-field data augmentation.

We propose a distributionally robust return-risk model for Markov decision processes (MDPs) under risk and reward ambiguity. The proposed model optimizes the weighted average of mean and percentile performances, and it covers the distributionally robust MDPs and the distributionally robust chance-constrained MDPs (both under reward ambiguity) as special cases. By considering that the unknown reward distribution lies in a Wasserstein ambiguity set, we derive the tractable reformulation for our model. In particular, we show that that the return-risk model can also account for risk from uncertain transition kernel when one only seeks deterministic policies, and that a distributionally robust MDP under the percentile criterion can be reformulated as its nominal counterpart at an adjusted risk level. A scalable first-order algorithm is designed to solve large-scale problems, and we demonstrate the advantages of our proposed model and algorithm through numerical experiments.

Missing values are a common problem in data science and machine learning. Removing instances with missing values can adversely affect the quality of further data analysis. This is exacerbated when there are relatively many more features than instances, and thus the proportion of affected instances is high. Such a scenario is common in many important domains, for example, single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) datasets provide a large number of features over a genome for a relatively small number of individuals. To preserve as much information as possible prior to modeling, a rigorous imputation scheme is acutely needed. While Denoising Autoencoders is a state-of-the-art method for imputation in high-dimensional data, they still require enough complete cases to be trained on which is often not available in real-world problems. In this paper, we consider missing value imputation as a multi-label classification problem and propose Chains of Autoreplicative Random Forests. Using multi-label Random Forests instead of neural networks works well for low-sampled data as there are fewer parameters to optimize. Experiments on several SNP datasets show that our algorithm effectively imputes missing values based only on information from the dataset and exhibits better performance than standard algorithms that do not require any additional information. In this paper, the algorithm is implemented specifically for SNP data, but it can easily be adapted for other cases of missing value imputation.

The literature on machine learning in the context of data streams is vast and growing. However, many of the defining assumptions regarding data-stream learning tasks are too strong to hold in practice, or are even contradictory such that they cannot be met in the contexts of supervised learning. Algorithms are chosen and designed based on criteria which are often not clearly stated, for problem settings not clearly defined, tested in unrealistic settings, and/or in isolation from related approaches in the wider literature. This puts into question the potential for real-world impact of many approaches conceived in such contexts, and risks propagating a misguided research focus. We propose to tackle these issues by reformulating the fundamental definitions and settings of supervised data-stream learning with regard to contemporary considerations of concept drift and temporal dependence; and we take a fresh look at what constitutes a supervised data-stream learning task, and a reconsideration of algorithms that may be applied to tackle such tasks. Through and in reflection of this formulation and overview, helped by an informal survey of industrial players dealing with real-world data streams, we provide recommendations. Our main emphasis is that learning from data streams does not impose a single-pass or online-learning approach, or any particular learning regime; and any constraints on memory and time are not specific to streaming. Meanwhile, there exist established techniques for dealing with temporal dependence and concept drift, in other areas of the literature. For the data streams community, we thus encourage a shift in research focus, from dealing with often-artificial constraints and assumptions on the learning mode, to issues such as robustness, privacy, and interpretability which are increasingly relevant to learning in data streams in academic and industrial settings.

Cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (c-MARL) is widely applied in safety-critical scenarios, thus the analysis of robustness for c-MARL models is profoundly important. However, robustness certification for c-MARLs has not yet been explored in the community. In this paper, we propose a novel certification method, which is the first work to leverage a scalable approach for c-MARLs to determine actions with guaranteed certified bounds. c-MARL certification poses two key challenges compared with single-agent systems: (i) the accumulated uncertainty as the number of agents increases; (ii) the potential lack of impact when changing the action of a single agent into a global team reward. These challenges prevent us from directly using existing algorithms. Hence, we employ the false discovery rate (FDR) controlling procedure considering the importance of each agent to certify per-state robustness and propose a tree-search-based algorithm to find a lower bound of the global reward under the minimal certified perturbation. As our method is general, it can also be applied in single-agent environments. We empirically show that our certification bounds are much tighter than state-of-the-art RL certification solutions. We also run experiments on two popular c-MARL algorithms: QMIX and VDN, in two different environments, with two and four agents. The experimental results show that our method produces meaningful guaranteed robustness for all models and environments. Our tool CertifyCMARL is available at https://github.com/TrustAI/CertifyCMA

Variational autoencoders and Helmholtz machines use a recognition network (encoder) to approximate the posterior distribution of a generative model (decoder). In this paper we study the necessary and sufficient properties of a recognition network so that it can model the true posterior distribution exactly. These results are derived in the general context of probabilistic graphical modelling / Bayesian networks, for which the network represents a set of conditional independence statements. We derive both global conditions, in terms of d-separation, and local conditions for the recognition network to have the desired qualities. It turns out that for the local conditions the property perfectness (for every node, all parents are joined) plays an important role.

Scholarly text is often laden with jargon, or specialized language that divides disciplines. We extend past work that characterizes science at the level of word types, by using BERT-based word sense induction to find additional words that are widespread but overloaded with different uses across fields. We define scholarly jargon as discipline-specific word types and senses, and estimate its prevalence across hundreds of fields using interpretable, information-theoretic metrics. We demonstrate the utility of our approach for science of science and computational sociolinguistics by highlighting two key social implications. First, we measure audience design, and find that most fields reduce jargon when publishing in general-purpose journals, but some do so more than others. Second, though jargon has varying correlation with articles' citation rates within fields, it nearly always impedes interdisciplinary impact. Broadly, our measurements can inform ways in which language could be revised to serve as a bridge rather than a barrier in science.

Real-time individual endpoint prediction has always been a challenging task but of great clinic utility for both patients and healthcare providers. With 6,879 chronic kidney disease stage 4 (CKD4) patients as a use case, we explored the feasibility and performance of gated recurrent units with decay that models Weibull probability density function (GRU-D-Weibull) as a semi-parametric longitudinal model for real-time individual endpoint prediction. GRU-D-Weibull has a maximum C-index of 0.77 at 4.3 years of follow-up, compared to 0.68 achieved by competing models. The L1-loss of GRU-D-Weibull is ~66% of XGB(AFT), ~60% of MTLR, and ~30% of AFT model at CKD4 index date. The average absolute L1-loss of GRU-D-Weibull is around one year, with a minimum of 40% Parkes serious error after index date. GRU-D-Weibull is not calibrated and significantly underestimates true survival probability. Feature importance tests indicate blood pressure becomes increasingly important during follow-up, while eGFR and blood albumin are less important. Most continuous features have non-linear/parabola impact on predicted survival time, and the results are generally consistent with existing knowledge. GRU-D-Weibull as a semi-parametric temporal model shows advantages in built-in parameterization of missing, native support for asynchronously arrived measurement, capability of output both probability and point estimates at arbitrary time point for arbitrary prediction horizon, improved discrimination and point estimate accuracy after incorporating newly arrived data. Further research on its performance with more comprehensive input features, in-process or post-process calibration are warranted to benefit CKD4 or alike terminally-ill patients.

We propose the first joint audio-video generation framework that brings engaging watching and listening experiences simultaneously, towards high-quality realistic videos. To generate joint audio-video pairs, we propose a novel Multi-Modal Diffusion model (i.e., MM-Diffusion), with two-coupled denoising autoencoders. In contrast to existing single-modal diffusion models, MM-Diffusion consists of a sequential multi-modal U-Net for a joint denoising process by design. Two subnets for audio and video learn to gradually generate aligned audio-video pairs from Gaussian noises. To ensure semantic consistency across modalities, we propose a novel random-shift based attention block bridging over the two subnets, which enables efficient cross-modal alignment, and thus reinforces the audio-video fidelity for each other. Extensive experiments show superior results in unconditional audio-video generation, and zero-shot conditional tasks (e.g., video-to-audio). In particular, we achieve the best FVD and FAD on Landscape and AIST++ dancing datasets. Turing tests of 10k votes further demonstrate dominant preferences for our model. The code and pre-trained models can be downloaded at https://github.com/researchmm/MM-Diffusion.

As Artificial and Robotic Systems are increasingly deployed and relied upon for real-world applications, it is important that they exhibit the ability to continually learn and adapt in dynamically-changing environments, becoming Lifelong Learning Machines. Continual/lifelong learning (LL) involves minimizing catastrophic forgetting of old tasks while maximizing a model's capability to learn new tasks. This paper addresses the challenging lifelong reinforcement learning (L2RL) setting. Pushing the state-of-the-art forward in L2RL and making L2RL useful for practical applications requires more than developing individual L2RL algorithms; it requires making progress at the systems-level, especially research into the non-trivial problem of how to integrate multiple L2RL algorithms into a common framework. In this paper, we introduce the Lifelong Reinforcement Learning Components Framework (L2RLCF), which standardizes L2RL systems and assimilates different continual learning components (each addressing different aspects of the lifelong learning problem) into a unified system. As an instantiation of L2RLCF, we develop a standard API allowing easy integration of novel lifelong learning components. We describe a case study that demonstrates how multiple independently-developed LL components can be integrated into a single realized system. We also introduce an evaluation environment in order to measure the effect of combining various system components. Our evaluation environment employs different LL scenarios (sequences of tasks) consisting of Starcraft-2 minigames and allows for the fair, comprehensive, and quantitative comparison of different combinations of components within a challenging common evaluation environment.