我们考虑有限混合物（MFM）和Dirichlet工艺混合物（DPM）模型的贝叶斯混合物。最近的渐近理论已经确定，DPM高估了大型样本的聚类数量，并且两类模型的估计量对于不指定的群集的数量不一致，但是对有限样本分析的含义尚不清楚。拟合这些模型后的最终报告的估计通常是使用MCMC摘要技术获得的单个代表性聚类，但是尚不清楚这样的摘要估计簇的数量。在这里，我们通过模拟和对基因表达数据的应用进行了研究，发现（i）DPM甚至在有限样本中高估了簇数的数量，但仅在有限的程度上可以使用适当的摘要来纠正，并且（ii）（ii） ）错误指定会导致对DPM和MFM中集群数量的高估，但是结果通常仍然可以解释。我们提供了有关MCMC摘要的建议，并建议尽管MFM的渐近性能更具吸引力，这提供了强大的动力来偏爱它们，但使用MFMS和DPMS获得的结果通常在实践中非常相似。

ICECUBE是一种用于检测1 GEV和1 PEV之间大气和天体中微子的光学传感器的立方公斤阵列，该阵列已部署1.45 km至2.45 km的南极的冰盖表面以下1.45 km至2.45 km。来自ICE探测器的事件的分类和重建在ICeCube数据分析中起着核心作用。重建和分类事件是一个挑战，这是由于探测器的几何形状，不均匀的散射和冰中光的吸收，并且低于100 GEV的光，每个事件产生的信号光子数量相对较少。为了应对这一挑战，可以将ICECUBE事件表示为点云图形，并将图形神经网络（GNN）作为分类和重建方法。 GNN能够将中微子事件与宇宙射线背景区分开，对不同的中微子事件类型进行分类，并重建沉积的能量，方向和相互作用顶点。基于仿真，我们提供了1-100 GEV能量范围的比较与当前ICECUBE分析中使用的当前最新最大似然技术，包括已知系统不确定性的影响。对于中微子事件分类，与当前的IceCube方法相比，GNN以固定的假阳性速率（FPR）提高了信号效率的18％。另外，GNN在固定信号效率下将FPR的降低超过8（低于半百分比）。对于能源，方向和相互作用顶点的重建，与当前最大似然技术相比，分辨率平均提高了13％-20％。当在GPU上运行时，GNN能够以几乎是2.7 kHz的中位数ICECUBE触发速率的速率处理ICECUBE事件，这打开了在在线搜索瞬态事件中使用低能量中微子的可能性。

语言模型既展示了定量的改进，又展示了新的定性功能，随着规模的增加。尽管它们具有潜在的变革性影响，但这些新能力的特征却很差。为了为未来的研究提供信息，为破坏性的新模型能力做准备，并改善社会有害的效果，至关重要的是，我们必须了解目前和近乎未来的能力和语言模型的局限性。为了应对这一挑战，我们介绍了超越模仿游戏基准（Big Bench）。 Big Bench目前由204个任务组成，由132家机构的442位作者贡献。任务主题是多样的，从语言学，儿童发展，数学，常识性推理，生物学，物理学，社会偏见，软件开发等等。 Big-Bench专注于被认为超出当前语言模型的功能的任务。我们评估了OpenAI的GPT型号，Google内部密集变压器体系结构和大型基础上的开关稀疏变压器的行为，跨越了数百万到数十亿个参数。此外，一个人类专家评估者团队执行了所有任务，以提供强大的基准。研究结果包括：模型性能和校准都随规模改善，但绝对的术语（以及与评估者的性能相比）；在模型类中的性能非常相似，尽管带有稀疏性。逐渐和预测的任务通常涉及大量知识或记忆成分，而在临界规模上表现出“突破性”行为的任务通常涉及多个步骤或组成部分或脆性指标；社交偏见通常会随着含糊不清的环境而随着规模而增加，但这可以通过提示来改善。

尽管近期因因果推断领域的进展，迄今为止没有关于从观察数据的收集治疗效应估算的方法。对临床实践的结果是，当缺乏随机试验的结果时，没有指导在真实情景中似乎有效的指导。本文提出了一种务实的方法，以获得从观察性研究的治疗效果的初步但稳健地估算，为前线临床医生提供对其治疗策略的信心程度。我们的研究设计适用于一个公开问题，估算Covid-19密集护理患者的拳击机动的治疗效果。

With the rise in high resolution remote sensing technologies there has been an explosion in the amount of data available for forest monitoring, and an accompanying growth in artificial intelligence applications to automatically derive forest properties of interest from these datasets. Many studies use their own data at small spatio-temporal scales, and demonstrate an application of an existing or adapted data science method for a particular task. This approach often involves intensive and time-consuming data collection and processing, but generates results restricted to specific ecosystems and sensor types. There is a lack of widespread acknowledgement of how the types and structures of data used affects performance and accuracy of analysis algorithms. To accelerate progress in the field more efficiently, benchmarking datasets upon which methods can be tested and compared are sorely needed. Here, we discuss how lack of standardisation impacts confidence in estimation of key forest properties, and how considerations of data collection need to be accounted for in assessing method performance. We present pragmatic requirements and considerations for the creation of rigorous, useful benchmarking datasets for forest monitoring applications, and discuss how tools from modern data science can improve use of existing data. We list a set of example large-scale datasets that could contribute to benchmarking, and present a vision for how community-driven, representative benchmarking initiatives could benefit the field.

Recent advances in safety-critical risk-aware control are predicated on apriori knowledge of the disturbances a system might face. This paper proposes a method to efficiently learn these disturbances online, in a risk-aware context. First, we introduce the concept of a Surface-at-Risk, a risk measure for stochastic processes that extends Value-at-Risk -- a commonly utilized risk measure in the risk-aware controls community. Second, we model the norm of the state discrepancy between the model and the true system evolution as a scalar-valued stochastic process and determine an upper bound to its Surface-at-Risk via Gaussian Process Regression. Third, we provide theoretical results on the accuracy of our fitted surface subject to mild assumptions that are verifiable with respect to the data sets collected during system operation. Finally, we experimentally verify our procedure by augmenting a drone's controller and highlight performance increases achieved via our risk-aware approach after collecting less than a minute of operating data.

Efficient characterization of highly entangled multi-particle systems is an outstanding challenge in quantum science. Recent developments have shown that a modest number of randomized measurements suffices to learn many properties of a quantum many-body system. However, implementing such measurements requires complete control over individual particles, which is unavailable in many experimental platforms. In this work, we present rigorous and efficient algorithms for learning quantum many-body states in systems with any degree of control over individual particles, including when every particle is subject to the same global field and no additional ancilla particles are available. We numerically demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithms for estimating energy densities in a U(1) lattice gauge theory and classifying topological order using very limited measurement capabilities.

Estimating the probability of failure for complex real-world systems using high-fidelity computational models is often prohibitively expensive, especially when the probability is small. Exploiting low-fidelity models can make this process more feasible, but merging information from multiple low-fidelity and high-fidelity models poses several challenges. This paper presents a robust multi-fidelity surrogate modeling strategy in which the multi-fidelity surrogate is assembled using an active learning strategy using an on-the-fly model adequacy assessment set within a subset simulation framework for efficient reliability analysis. The multi-fidelity surrogate is assembled by first applying a Gaussian process correction to each low-fidelity model and assigning a model probability based on the model's local predictive accuracy and cost. Three strategies are proposed to fuse these individual surrogates into an overall surrogate model based on model averaging and deterministic/stochastic model selection. The strategies also dictate which model evaluations are necessary. No assumptions are made about the relationships between low-fidelity models, while the high-fidelity model is assumed to be the most accurate and most computationally expensive model. Through two analytical and two numerical case studies, including a case study evaluating the failure probability of Tristructural isotropic-coated (TRISO) nuclear fuels, the algorithm is shown to be highly accurate while drastically reducing the number of high-fidelity model calls (and hence computational cost).

We explore unifying a neural segmenter with two-pass cascaded encoder ASR into a single model. A key challenge is allowing the segmenter (which runs in real-time, synchronously with the decoder) to finalize the 2nd pass (which runs 900 ms behind real-time) without introducing user-perceived latency or deletion errors during inference. We propose a design where the neural segmenter is integrated with the causal 1st pass decoder to emit a end-of-segment (EOS) signal in real-time. The EOS signal is then used to finalize the non-causal 2nd pass. We experiment with different ways to finalize the 2nd pass, and find that a novel dummy frame injection strategy allows for simultaneous high quality 2nd pass results and low finalization latency. On a real-world long-form captioning task (YouTube), we achieve 2.4% relative WER and 140 ms EOS latency gains over a baseline VAD-based segmenter with the same cascaded encoder.

Governments, industry, and academia have undertaken efforts to identify and mitigate harms in ML-driven systems, with a particular focus on social and ethical risks of ML components in complex sociotechnical systems. However, existing approaches are largely disjointed, ad-hoc and of unknown effectiveness. Systems safety engineering is a well established discipline with a track record of identifying and managing risks in many complex sociotechnical domains. We adopt the natural hypothesis that tools from this domain could serve to enhance risk analyses of ML in its context of use. To test this hypothesis, we apply a "best of breed" systems safety analysis, Systems Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), to a specific high-consequence system with an important ML-driven component, namely the Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs (PDMPs) operated by many US States, several of which rely on an ML-derived risk score. We focus in particular on how this analysis can extend to identifying social and ethical risks and developing concrete design-level controls to mitigate them.