在本文中，我们描述了使用汉密尔顿蒙特卡洛方法从基于经验可能性的后验进行采样的{\ tt r}软件包。基于经验可能性的方法论已在最近的许多感兴趣问题的贝叶斯建模中使用。该半摩擦过程可以轻松地将非参数分布估计器的灵活性与参数模型的可解释性结合在一起。该模型是通过估计基于方程的约束来指定的。从贝叶斯的经验可能性（贝耶斯）后部提取推断是具有挑战性的。可能性是数值计算的，因此不存在后部的闭合表达。此外，对于任何有限尺寸的样本，可能性的支持是非凸，这阻碍了许多马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛（MCMC）程序的快速混合。最近已经表明，使用对数经验可能性梯度的性质，可以设计有效的汉密尔顿蒙特卡洛（HMC）算法来从贝内斯尔后部采样。该软件包要求用户仅指定估计方程，先验及其各自的梯度。从参数后部绘制的MCMC样本，并获得了用户所需的各种细节。

最近，经验可能性已在贝叶斯框架下广泛应用。马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛（MCMC）方法经常用于从感兴趣参数的后验分布中采样。然而，可能性支持的复杂性，尤其是非凸性的性质，在选择适当的MCMC算法时建立了巨大的障碍。这种困难限制了在许多应用中基于贝叶斯的经验可能性（贝叶赛）方法的使用。在本文中，我们提出了一个两步的大都会黑斯廷斯算法，以从贝耶斯后期进行采样。我们的建议是在层次上指定的，其中确定经验可能性的估计方程用于根据其余参数的建议值提出一组参数的值。此外，我们使用经验可能性讨论贝叶斯模型的选择，并将我们的两步大都会黑斯廷斯算法扩展到可逆的跳跃马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛手术程序，以便从最终的后验中采样。最后，提出了我们提出的方法的几种应用。

We introduce an end-to-end computational framework that enables hyperparameter optimization with the DeepHyper library, accelerated training, and interpretable AI inference with a suite of state-of-the-art AI models, including CGCNN, PhysNet, SchNet, MPNN, MPNN-transformer, and TorchMD-Net. We use these AI models and the benchmark QM9, hMOF, and MD17 datasets to showcase the prediction of user-specified materials properties in modern computing environments, and to demonstrate translational applications for the modeling of small molecules, crystals and metal organic frameworks with a unified, stand-alone framework. We deployed and tested this framework in the ThetaGPU supercomputer at the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility, and the Delta supercomputer at the National Center for Supercomputing Applications to provide researchers with modern tools to conduct accelerated AI-driven discovery in leadership class computing environments.

Data compression is becoming critical for storing scientific data because many scientific applications need to store large amounts of data and post process this data for scientific discovery. Unlike image and video compression algorithms that limit errors to primary data, scientists require compression techniques that accurately preserve derived quantities of interest (QoIs). This paper presents a physics-informed compression technique implemented as an end-to-end, scalable, GPU-based pipeline for data compression that addresses this requirement. Our hybrid compression technique combines machine learning techniques and standard compression methods. Specifically, we combine an autoencoder, an error-bounded lossy compressor to provide guarantees on raw data error, and a constraint satisfaction post-processing step to preserve the QoIs within a minimal error (generally less than floating point error). The effectiveness of the data compression pipeline is demonstrated by compressing nuclear fusion simulation data generated by a large-scale fusion code, XGC, which produces hundreds of terabytes of data in a single day. Our approach works within the ADIOS framework and results in compression by a factor of more than 150 while requiring only a few percent of the computational resources necessary for generating the data, making the overall approach highly effective for practical scenarios.

We propose a novel model agnostic data-driven reliability analysis framework for time-dependent reliability analysis. The proposed approach -- referred to as MAntRA -- combines interpretable machine learning, Bayesian statistics, and identifying stochastic dynamic equation to evaluate reliability of stochastically-excited dynamical systems for which the governing physics is \textit{apriori} unknown. A two-stage approach is adopted: in the first stage, an efficient variational Bayesian equation discovery algorithm is developed to determine the governing physics of an underlying stochastic differential equation (SDE) from measured output data. The developed algorithm is efficient and accounts for epistemic uncertainty due to limited and noisy data, and aleatoric uncertainty because of environmental effect and external excitation. In the second stage, the discovered SDE is solved using a stochastic integration scheme and the probability failure is computed. The efficacy of the proposed approach is illustrated on three numerical examples. The results obtained indicate the possible application of the proposed approach for reliability analysis of in-situ and heritage structures from on-site measurements.

Nostradamus, inspired by the French astrologer and reputed seer, is a detailed study exploring relations between environmental factors and changes in the stock market. In this paper, we analyze associative correlation and causation between environmental elements and stock prices based on the US financial market, global climate trends, and daily weather records to demonstrate significant relationships between climate and stock price fluctuation. Our analysis covers short and long-term rises and dips in company stock performances. Lastly, we take four natural disasters as a case study to observe their effect on the emotional state of people and their influence on the stock market.

We present DyFOS, an active perception method that Dynamically Finds Optimal States to minimize localization error while avoiding obstacles and occlusions. We consider the scenario where a ground target without any exteroceptive sensors must rely on an aerial observer for pose and uncertainty estimates to localize itself along an obstacle-filled path. The observer uses a downward-facing camera to estimate the target's pose and uncertainty. However, the pose uncertainty is a function of the states of the observer, target, and surrounding environment. To find an optimal state that minimizes the target's localization uncertainty, DyFOS uses a localization error prediction pipeline in an optimization search. Given the states mentioned above, the pipeline predicts the target's localization uncertainty with the help of a trained, complex state-dependent sensor measurement model (which is a probabilistic neural network in our case). Our pipeline also predicts target occlusion and obstacle collision to remove undesirable observer states. The output of the optimization search is an optimal observer state that minimizes target localization uncertainty while avoiding occlusion and collision. We evaluate the proposed method using numerical and simulated (Gazebo) experiments. Our results show that DyFOS is almost 100x faster than yet as good as brute force. Furthermore, DyFOS yielded lower localization errors than random and heuristic searches.

Adversarial training has been empirically shown to be more prone to overfitting than standard training. The exact underlying reasons still need to be fully understood. In this paper, we identify one cause of overfitting related to current practices of generating adversarial samples from misclassified samples. To address this, we propose an alternative approach that leverages the misclassified samples to mitigate the overfitting problem. We show that our approach achieves better generalization while having comparable robustness to state-of-the-art adversarial training methods on a wide range of computer vision, natural language processing, and tabular tasks.

Adversarial training is widely acknowledged as the most effective defense against adversarial attacks. However, it is also well established that achieving both robustness and generalization in adversarially trained models involves a trade-off. The goal of this work is to provide an in depth comparison of different approaches for adversarial training in language models. Specifically, we study the effect of pre-training data augmentation as well as training time input perturbations vs. embedding space perturbations on the robustness and generalization of BERT-like language models. Our findings suggest that better robustness can be achieved by pre-training data augmentation or by training with input space perturbation. However, training with embedding space perturbation significantly improves generalization. A linguistic correlation analysis of neurons of the learned models reveal that the improved generalization is due to `more specialized' neurons. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to carry out a deep qualitative analysis of different methods of generating adversarial examples in adversarial training of language models.

Millions of people participate in online peer-to-peer support sessions, yet there has been little prior research on systematic psychology-based evaluations of fine-grained peer-counselor behavior in relation to client satisfaction. This paper seeks to bridge this gap by mapping peer-counselor chat-messages to motivational interviewing (MI) techniques. We annotate 14,797 utterances from 734 chat conversations using 17 MI techniques and introduce four new interviewing codes such as chit-chat and inappropriate to account for the unique conversational patterns observed on online platforms. We automate the process of labeling peer-counselor responses to MI techniques by fine-tuning large domain-specific language models and then use these automated measures to investigate the behavior of the peer counselors via correlational studies. Specifically, we study the impact of MI techniques on the conversation ratings to investigate the techniques that predict clients' satisfaction with their counseling sessions. When counselors use techniques such as reflection and affirmation, clients are more satisfied. Examining volunteer counselors' change in usage of techniques suggest that counselors learn to use more introduction and open questions as they gain experience. This work provides a deeper understanding of the use of motivational interviewing techniques on peer-to-peer counselor platforms and sheds light on how to build better training programs for volunteer counselors on online platforms.