Dengue fever is a virulent disease spreading over 100 tropical and subtropical countries in Africa, the Americas, and Asia. This arboviral disease affects around 400 million people globally, severely distressing the healthcare systems. The unavailability of a specific drug and ready-to-use vaccine makes the situation worse. Hence, policymakers must rely on early warning systems to control intervention-related decisions. Forecasts routinely provide critical information for dangerous epidemic events. However, the available forecasting models (e.g., weather-driven mechanistic, statistical time series, and machine learning models) lack a clear understanding of different components to improve prediction accuracy and often provide unstable and unreliable forecasts. This study proposes an ensemble wavelet neural network with exogenous factor(s) (XEWNet) model that can produce reliable estimates for dengue outbreak prediction for three geographical regions, namely San Juan, Iquitos, and Ahmedabad. The proposed XEWNet model is flexible and can easily incorporate exogenous climate variable(s) confirmed by statistical causality tests in its scalable framework. The proposed model is an integrated approach that uses wavelet transformation into an ensemble neural network framework that helps in generating more reliable long-term forecasts. The proposed XEWNet allows complex non-linear relationships between the dengue incidence cases and rainfall; however, mathematically interpretable, fast in execution, and easily comprehensible. The proposal's competitiveness is measured using computational experiments based on various statistical metrics and several statistical comparison tests. In comparison with statistical, machine learning, and deep learning methods, our proposed XEWNet performs better in 75% of the cases for short-term and long-term forecasting of dengue incidence.
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传染病仍然是全世界人类疾病和死亡的主要因素之一,其中许多疾病引起了流行的感染波。特定药物和预防疫苗防止大多数流行病的不可用,这使情况变得更糟。这些迫使公共卫生官员,卫生保健提供者和政策制定者依靠由流行病的可靠预测产生的预警系统。对流行病的准确预测可以帮助利益相关者调整对手的对策,例如疫苗接种运动,人员安排和资源分配,以减少手头的情况,这可以转化为减少疾病影响的影响。不幸的是,大多数过去的流行病(例如,登革热,疟疾,肝炎,流感和最新的Covid-19)表现出非线性和非平稳性特征,这是由于它们基于季节性依赖性变化以及这些流行病的性质的扩散波动而引起的。 。我们使用基于最大的重叠离散小波变换(MODWT)自动回归神经网络分析了各种流行时期时间序列数据集,并将其称为EWNET。 MODWT技术有效地表征了流行时间序列中的非平稳行为和季节性依赖性,并在拟议的集合小波网络框架中改善了自回旋神经网络的预测方案。从非线性时间序列的角度来看,我们探讨了所提出的EWNET模型的渐近平稳性,以显示相关的马尔可夫链的渐近行为。我们还理论上还研究了学习稳定性的效果以及在拟议的EWNET模型中选择隐藏的神经元的选择。从实际的角度来看,我们将我们提出的EWNET框架与以前用于流行病预测的几种统计,机器学习和深度学习模型进行了比较。
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预测时间序列数据代表了数据科学和知识发现研究的新兴领域,其广泛应用程序从股票价格和能源需求预测到早期预测流行病。在过去的五十年中,已经提出了许多统计和机器学习方法,对高质量和可靠预测的需求。但是,在现实生活中的预测问题中,存在基于上述范式之一的模型是可取的。因此,需要混合解决方案来弥合经典预测方法与现代神经网络模型之间的差距。在这种情况下,我们介绍了一个概率自回归神经网络(PARNN)模型,该模型可以处理各种复杂的时间序列数据(例如,非线性,非季节性,远程依赖性和非平稳性)。拟议的PARNN模型是通过建立综合运动平均值和自回归神经网络的融合来构建的,以保持个人的解释性,可伸缩性和``白色盒子样''的预测行为。通过考虑相关的马尔可夫链的渐近行为,获得了渐近平稳性和几何形状的足够条件。与先进的深度学习工具不同,基于预测间隔的PARNN模型的不确定性量化。在计算实验期间,Parnn在各种各样的现实世界数据集中,超过了标准统计,机器学习和深度学习模型(例如,变形金刚,Nbeats,Deepar等),来自宏观经济学,旅游,能源,流行病学和其他人的真实数据集集合 - 期,中期和长期预测。与最先进的预报相比,与最佳方法相比,与最佳方法进行了多重比较,以展示该提案的优越性。
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每年国际语义网络会议组织一套语义网络挑战,以建立将在一些问题领域推进最先进的解决方案的竞争。语义答案类型和关系预测任务(SMART)任务是ISWC 2021语义网络挑战之一。这是在ISWC 2020成功智能2020后的挑战的第二年。今年的版本侧重于两个对知识库问题应答(KBQA)的非常重要的子任务:答案类型预测和关系预测。问题类型和答案类型预测可以在知识库问题应答系统中发挥关键作用,提供关于有助于生成正确查询或排名答案候选人的预期答案的见解。鉴于自然语言的问题更具体地说,第一个任务是使用目标本体预测答案类型(例如,DBPedia或Wikidata。类似地,第二个任务是识别自然语言查询中的关系并将它们链接到目标本体中的关系。本文讨论了任务描述,基准数据集和评估指标。有关更多信息,请访问https://smart-task.github.io/2021/。
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Quadruped robots are currently used in industrial robotics as mechanical aid to automate several routine tasks. However, presently, the usage of such a robot in a domestic setting is still very much a part of the research. This paper discusses the understanding and virtual simulation of such a robot capable of detecting and understanding human emotions, generating its gait, and responding via sounds and expression on a screen. To this end, we use a combination of reinforcement learning and software engineering concepts to simulate a quadruped robot that can understand emotions, navigate through various terrains and detect sound sources, and respond to emotions using audio-visual feedback. This paper aims to establish the framework of simulating a quadruped robot that is emotionally intelligent and can primarily respond to audio-visual stimuli using motor or audio response. The emotion detection from the speech was not as performant as ERANNs or Zeta Policy learning, still managing an accuracy of 63.5%. The video emotion detection system produced results that are almost at par with the state of the art, with an accuracy of 99.66%. Due to its "on-policy" learning process, the PPO algorithm was extremely rapid to learn, allowing the simulated dog to demonstrate a remarkably seamless gait across the different cadences and variations. This enabled the quadruped robot to respond to generated stimuli, allowing us to conclude that it functions as predicted and satisfies the aim of this work.
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Searching long egocentric videos with natural language queries (NLQ) has compelling applications in augmented reality and robotics, where a fluid index into everything that a person (agent) has seen before could augment human memory and surface relevant information on demand. However, the structured nature of the learning problem (free-form text query inputs, localized video temporal window outputs) and its needle-in-a-haystack nature makes it both technically challenging and expensive to supervise. We introduce Narrations-as-Queries (NaQ), a data augmentation strategy that transforms standard video-text narrations into training data for a video query localization model. Validating our idea on the Ego4D benchmark, we find it has tremendous impact in practice. NaQ improves multiple top models by substantial margins (even doubling their accuracy), and yields the very best results to date on the Ego4D NLQ challenge, soundly outperforming all challenge winners in the CVPR and ECCV 2022 competitions and topping the current public leaderboard. Beyond achieving the state-of-the-art for NLQ, we also demonstrate unique properties of our approach such as gains on long-tail object queries, and the ability to perform zero-shot and few-shot NLQ.
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Machine Translation (MT) system generally aims at automatic representation of source language into target language retaining the originality of context using various Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques. Among various NLP methods, Statistical Machine Translation(SMT). SMT uses probabilistic and statistical techniques to analyze information and conversion. This paper canvasses about the development of bilingual SMT models for translating English to fifteen low-resource Indian Languages (ILs) and vice versa. At the outset, all 15 languages are briefed with a short description related to our experimental need. Further, a detailed analysis of Samanantar and OPUS dataset for model building, along with standard benchmark dataset (Flores-200) for fine-tuning and testing, is done as a part of our experiment. Different preprocessing approaches are proposed in this paper to handle the noise of the dataset. To create the system, MOSES open-source SMT toolkit is explored. Distance reordering is utilized with the aim to understand the rules of grammar and context-dependent adjustments through a phrase reordering categorization framework. In our experiment, the quality of the translation is evaluated using standard metrics such as BLEU, METEOR, and RIBES
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We introduce Argoverse 2 (AV2) - a collection of three datasets for perception and forecasting research in the self-driving domain. The annotated Sensor Dataset contains 1,000 sequences of multimodal data, encompassing high-resolution imagery from seven ring cameras, and two stereo cameras in addition to lidar point clouds, and 6-DOF map-aligned pose. Sequences contain 3D cuboid annotations for 26 object categories, all of which are sufficiently-sampled to support training and evaluation of 3D perception models. The Lidar Dataset contains 20,000 sequences of unlabeled lidar point clouds and map-aligned pose. This dataset is the largest ever collection of lidar sensor data and supports self-supervised learning and the emerging task of point cloud forecasting. Finally, the Motion Forecasting Dataset contains 250,000 scenarios mined for interesting and challenging interactions between the autonomous vehicle and other actors in each local scene. Models are tasked with the prediction of future motion for "scored actors" in each scenario and are provided with track histories that capture object location, heading, velocity, and category. In all three datasets, each scenario contains its own HD Map with 3D lane and crosswalk geometry - sourced from data captured in six distinct cities. We believe these datasets will support new and existing machine learning research problems in ways that existing datasets do not. All datasets are released under the CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 license.
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Cashews are grown by over 3 million smallholders in more than 40 countries worldwide as a principal source of income. As the third largest cashew producer in Africa, Benin has nearly 200,000 smallholder cashew growers contributing 15% of the country's national export earnings. However, a lack of information on where and how cashew trees grow across the country hinders decision-making that could support increased cashew production and poverty alleviation. By leveraging 2.4-m Planet Basemaps and 0.5-m aerial imagery, newly developed deep learning algorithms, and large-scale ground truth datasets, we successfully produced the first national map of cashew in Benin and characterized the expansion of cashew plantations between 2015 and 2021. In particular, we developed a SpatioTemporal Classification with Attention (STCA) model to map the distribution of cashew plantations, which can fully capture texture information from discriminative time steps during a growing season. We further developed a Clustering Augmented Self-supervised Temporal Classification (CASTC) model to distinguish high-density versus low-density cashew plantations by automatic feature extraction and optimized clustering. Results show that the STCA model has an overall accuracy of 80% and the CASTC model achieved an overall accuracy of 77.9%. We found that the cashew area in Benin has doubled from 2015 to 2021 with 60% of new plantation development coming from cropland or fallow land, while encroachment of cashew plantations into protected areas has increased by 70%. Only half of cashew plantations were high-density in 2021, suggesting high potential for intensification. Our study illustrates the power of combining high-resolution remote sensing imagery and state-of-the-art deep learning algorithms to better understand tree crops in the heterogeneous smallholder landscape.
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We propose an ensemble approach to predict the labels in linear programming word problems. The entity identification and the meaning representation are two types of tasks to be solved in the NL4Opt competition. We propose the ensembleCRF method to identify the named entities for the first task. We found that single models didn't improve for the given task in our analysis. A set of prediction models predict the entities. The generated results are combined to form a consensus result in the ensembleCRF method. We present an ensemble text generator to produce the representation sentences for the second task. We thought of dividing the problem into multiple small tasks due to the overflow in the output. A single model generates different representations based on the prompt. All the generated text is combined to form an ensemble and produce a mathematical meaning of a linear programming problem.
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