DECIASED机器学习（DML）提供了一种有吸引力的方法来估计观察环境中的治疗效果，在这种情况下，因果参数的识别需要有条件的独立性或不符的假设，因为它可以灵活地控制大量的协变量。本文提供了新的有限样本保证，可保证对高维DML的关节推断，从而界定了估计量的有限样本分布与其渐近高斯近似相距多远。这些保证对应用研究人员很有用，因为它们可以提供距离标称级别的联合置信带覆盖范围的距离。在许多情况下，高维因果参数可能引起人们的关注，例如许多治疗概况的吃量，或者在许多结果上进行治疗的食品。我们还涵盖了无限维度参数，例如对潜在结果的整个边际分布的影响。本文中的有限样本保证补充了DML估计量的一致性和渐近正态性的现有结果，DML估计量是渐近的，或仅处理一维情况。

感兴趣的许多因果和政策效应都是由高维或非参数回归函数的线性功能定义的。 $ \ sqrt {n} $ - 对目标对象的一致且渐近地正常估计需要偏见，以减少正则化和/或模型选择对感兴趣对象的影响。通常，通过将校正项添加到功能的插件估计器中来实现，从而导致属性，例如半参数效率，双重鲁棒性和Neyman正交性。我们基于自动学习使用神经网和随机森林的Riesz表示的自动偏差程序。我们的方法仅依赖于黑框评估Oracle访问线性功能，并且不需要其分析形式的知识。我们提出了一种多任务神经网络偏见方法，具有随机梯度下降最小化的Riesz代表和回归损失，同时共享这两个函数的表示层。我们还提出了一种随机森林方法，该方法了解Riesz函数的局部线性表示。即使我们的方法适用于任意功能，我们在实验上发现它的性能与Shi等人的最先进的神经网状算法相比。 （2019）对于平均治疗效果功能的情况。我们还使用汽油需求的汽油价格变化的半合成数据来评估我们的方法，即通过连续处理估算平均边缘效应的问题。

Selecting the number of topics in LDA models is considered to be a difficult task, for which alternative approaches have been proposed. The performance of the recently developed singular Bayesian information criterion (sBIC) is evaluated and compared to the performance of alternative model selection criteria. The sBIC is a generalization of the standard BIC that can be implemented to singular statistical models. The comparison is based on Monte Carlo simulations and carried out for several alternative settings, varying with respect to the number of topics, the number of documents and the size of documents in the corpora. Performance is measured using different criteria which take into account the correct number of topics, but also whether the relevant topics from the DGPs are identified. Practical recommendations for LDA model selection in applications are derived.

Applying deep learning concepts from image detection and graph theory has greatly advanced protein-ligand binding affinity prediction, a challenge with enormous ramifications for both drug discovery and protein engineering. We build upon these advances by designing a novel deep learning architecture consisting of a 3-dimensional convolutional neural network utilizing channel-wise attention and two graph convolutional networks utilizing attention-based aggregation of node features. HAC-Net (Hybrid Attention-Based Convolutional Neural Network) obtains state-of-the-art results on the PDBbind v.2016 core set, the most widely recognized benchmark in the field. We extensively assess the generalizability of our model using multiple train-test splits, each of which maximizes differences between either protein structures, protein sequences, or ligand extended-connectivity fingerprints. Furthermore, we perform 10-fold cross-validation with a similarity cutoff between SMILES strings of ligands in the training and test sets, and also evaluate the performance of HAC-Net on lower-quality data. We envision that this model can be extended to a broad range of supervised learning problems related to structure-based biomolecular property prediction. All of our software is available as open source at https://github.com/gregory-kyro/HAC-Net/.

Counterfactual explanation is a common class of methods to make local explanations of machine learning decisions. For a given instance, these methods aim to find the smallest modification of feature values that changes the predicted decision made by a machine learning model. One of the challenges of counterfactual explanation is the efficient generation of realistic counterfactuals. To address this challenge, we propose VCNet-Variational Counter Net-a model architecture that combines a predictor and a counterfactual generator that are jointly trained, for regression or classification tasks. VCNet is able to both generate predictions, and to generate counterfactual explanations without having to solve another minimisation problem. Our contribution is the generation of counterfactuals that are close to the distribution of the predicted class. This is done by learning a variational autoencoder conditionally to the output of the predictor in a join-training fashion. We present an empirical evaluation on tabular datasets and across several interpretability metrics. The results are competitive with the state-of-the-art method.

Despite their impressive performance on diverse tasks, large language models (LMs) still struggle with tasks requiring rich world knowledge, implying the limitations of relying solely on their parameters to encode a wealth of world knowledge. This paper aims to understand LMs' strengths and limitations in memorizing factual knowledge, by conducting large-scale knowledge probing experiments of 10 models and 4 augmentation methods on PopQA, our new open-domain QA dataset with 14k questions. We find that LMs struggle with less popular factual knowledge, and that scaling fails to appreciably improve memorization of factual knowledge in the tail. We then show that retrieval-augmented LMs largely outperform orders of magnitude larger LMs, while unassisted LMs remain competitive in questions about high-popularity entities. Based on those findings, we devise a simple, yet effective, method for powerful and efficient retrieval-augmented LMs, which retrieves non-parametric memories only when necessary. Experimental results show that this significantly improves models' performance while reducing the inference costs.

We introduce the Conditional Independence Regression CovariancE (CIRCE), a measure of conditional independence for multivariate continuous-valued variables. CIRCE applies as a regularizer in settings where we wish to learn neural features $\varphi(X)$ of data $X$ to estimate a target $Y$, while being conditionally independent of a distractor $Z$ given $Y$. Both $Z$ and $Y$ are assumed to be continuous-valued but relatively low dimensional, whereas $X$ and its features may be complex and high dimensional. Relevant settings include domain-invariant learning, fairness, and causal learning. The procedure requires just a single ridge regression from $Y$ to kernelized features of $Z$, which can be done in advance. It is then only necessary to enforce independence of $\varphi(X)$ from residuals of this regression, which is possible with attractive estimation properties and consistency guarantees. By contrast, earlier measures of conditional feature dependence require multiple regressions for each step of feature learning, resulting in more severe bias and variance, and greater computational cost. When sufficiently rich features are used, we establish that CIRCE is zero if and only if $\varphi(X) \perp \!\!\! \perp Z \mid Y$. In experiments, we show superior performance to previous methods on challenging benchmarks, including learning conditionally invariant image features.

This paper describes Waymo's Collision Avoidance Testing (CAT) methodology: a scenario-based testing method that evaluates the safety of the Waymo Driver Automated Driving Systems' (ADS) intended functionality in conflict situations initiated by other road users that require urgent evasive maneuvers. Because SAE Level 4 ADS are responsible for the dynamic driving task (DDT), when engaged, without immediate human intervention, evaluating a Level 4 ADS using scenario-based testing is difficult due to the potentially infinite number of operational scenarios in which hazardous situations may unfold. To that end, in this paper we first describe the safety test objectives for the CAT methodology, including the collision and serious injury metrics and the reference behavior model representing a non-impaired eyes on conflict human driver used to form an acceptance criterion. Afterward, we introduce the process for identifying potentially hazardous situations from a combination of human data, ADS testing data, and expert knowledge about the product design and associated Operational Design Domain (ODD). The test allocation and execution strategy is presented next, which exclusively utilize simulations constructed from sensor data collected on a test track, real-world driving, or from simulated sensor data. The paper concludes with the presentation of results from applying CAT to the fully autonomous ride-hailing service that Waymo operates in San Francisco, California and Phoenix, Arizona. The iterative nature of scenario identification, combined with over ten years of experience of on-road testing, results in a scenario database that converges to a representative set of responder role scenarios for a given ODD. Using Waymo's virtual test platform, which is calibrated to data collected as part of many years of ADS development, the CAT methodology provides a robust and scalable safety evaluation.

Training a Neural Radiance Field (NeRF) without pre-computed camera poses is challenging. Recent advances in this direction demonstrate the possibility of jointly optimising a NeRF and camera poses in forward-facing scenes. However, these methods still face difficulties during dramatic camera movement. We tackle this challenging problem by incorporating undistorted monocular depth priors. These priors are generated by correcting scale and shift parameters during training, with which we are then able to constrain the relative poses between consecutive frames. This constraint is achieved using our proposed novel loss functions. Experiments on real-world indoor and outdoor scenes show that our method can handle challenging camera trajectories and outperforms existing methods in terms of novel view rendering quality and pose estimation accuracy.

The integration of data and knowledge from several sources is known as data fusion. When data is available in a distributed fashion or when different sensors are used to infer a quantity of interest, data fusion becomes essential. In Bayesian settings, a priori information of the unknown quantities is available and, possibly, shared among the distributed estimators. When the local estimates are fused, such prior might be overused unless it is accounted for. This paper explores the effects of shared priors in Bayesian data fusion contexts, providing fusion rules and analysis to understand the performance of such fusion as a function of the number of collaborative agents and the uncertainty of the priors. Analytical results are corroborated through experiments in a variety of estimation and classification problems.