Linear structural causal models (SCMs)-- in which each observed variable is generated by a subset of the other observed variables as well as a subset of the exogenous sources-- are pervasive in causal inference and casual discovery. However, for the task of causal discovery, existing work almost exclusively focus on the submodel where each observed variable is associated with a distinct source with non-zero variance. This results in the restriction that no observed variable can deterministically depend on other observed variables or latent confounders. In this paper, we extend the results on structure learning by focusing on a subclass of linear SCMs which do not have this property, i.e., models in which observed variables can be causally affected by any subset of the sources, and are allowed to be a deterministic function of other observed variables or latent confounders. This allows for a more realistic modeling of influence or information propagation in systems. We focus on the task of causal discovery form observational data generated from a member of this subclass. We derive a set of necessary and sufficient conditions for unique identifiability of the causal structure. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that gives identifiability results for causal discovery under both latent confounding and deterministic relationships. Further, we propose an algorithm for recovering the underlying causal structure when the aforementioned conditions are satisfied. We validate our theoretical results both on synthetic and real datasets.
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We focus on causal discovery in the presence of measurement error in linear systems where the mixing matrix, i.e., the matrix indicating the independent exogenous noise terms pertaining to the observed variables, is identified up to permutation and scaling of the columns. We demonstrate a somewhat surprising connection between this problem and causal discovery in the presence of unobserved parentless causes, in the sense that there is a mapping, given by the mixing matrix, between the underlying models to be inferred in these problems. Consequently, any identifiability result based on the mixing matrix for one model translates to an identifiability result for the other model. We characterize to what extent the causal models can be identified under a two-part faithfulness assumption. Under only the first part of the assumption (corresponding to the conventional definition of faithfulness), the structure can be learned up to the causal ordering among an ordered grouping of the variables but not all the edges across the groups can be identified. We further show that if both parts of the faithfulness assumption are imposed, the structure can be learned up to a more refined ordered grouping. As a result of this refinement, for the latent variable model with unobserved parentless causes, the structure can be identified. Based on our theoretical results, we propose causal structure learning methods for both models, and evaluate their performance on synthetic data.
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我们研究了在存在潜在变量存在下从数据重建因果图形模型的问题。感兴趣的主要问题是在潜在变量上恢复因果结构,同时允许一般,可能在变量之间的非线性依赖性。在许多实际问题中,原始观测之间的依赖性(例如,图像中的像素)的依赖性比某些高级潜在特征(例如概念或对象)之间的依赖性要小得多,这是感兴趣的设置。我们提供潜在表示和潜在潜在因果模型的条件可通过减少到混合甲骨文来识别。这些结果突出了学习混合模型的顺序的良好研究问题与观察到和解开的基础结构的问题之间的富裕问题之间的有趣连接。证明是建设性的,并导致几种算法用于明确重建全图形模型。我们讨论高效算法并提供说明实践中算法的实验。
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We consider the problem of recovering the causal structure underlying observations from different experimental conditions when the targets of the interventions in each experiment are unknown. We assume a linear structural causal model with additive Gaussian noise and consider interventions that perturb their targets while maintaining the causal relationships in the system. Different models may entail the same distributions, offering competing causal explanations for the given observations. We fully characterize this equivalence class and offer identifiability results, which we use to derive a greedy algorithm called GnIES to recover the equivalence class of the data-generating model without knowledge of the intervention targets. In addition, we develop a novel procedure to generate semi-synthetic data sets with known causal ground truth but distributions closely resembling those of a real data set of choice. We leverage this procedure and evaluate the performance of GnIES on synthetic, real, and semi-synthetic data sets. Despite the strong Gaussian distributional assumption, GnIES is robust to an array of model violations and competitive in recovering the causal structure in small- to large-sample settings. We provide, in the Python packages "gnies" and "sempler", implementations of GnIES and our semi-synthetic data generation procedure.
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因果推断的一个共同主题是学习观察到的变量(也称为因果发现)之间的因果关系。考虑到大量候选因果图和搜索空间的组合性质,这通常是一项艰巨的任务。也许出于这个原因,到目前为止,大多数研究都集中在相对较小的因果图上,并具有多达数百个节点。但是,诸如生物学之类的领域的最新进展使生成实验数据集,并进行了数千种干预措施,然后进行了数千个变量的丰富分析,从而增加了机会和迫切需要大量因果图模型。在这里,我们介绍了因子定向无环图(F-DAG)的概念,是将搜索空间限制为非线性低级别因果相互作用模型的一种方法。将这种新颖的结构假设与最近的进步相结合,弥合因果发现与连续优化之间的差距,我们在数千个变量上实现了因果发现。此外,作为统计噪声对此估计程序的影响的模型,我们根据随机图研究了F-DAG骨架的边缘扰动模型,并量化了此类扰动对F-DAG等级的影响。该理论分析表明,一组候选F-DAG比整个DAG空间小得多,因此在很难评估基础骨架的高维度中更统计学上的稳定性。我们提出了因子图(DCD-FG)的可区分因果发现,这是对高维介入数据的F-DAG约束因果发现的可扩展实现。 DCD-FG使用高斯非线性低级结构方程模型,并且在模拟中的最新方法以及最新的大型单细胞RNA测序数据集中,与最新方法相比显示出显着改善遗传干预措施。
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In recent years, several methods have been proposed for the discovery of causal structure from non-experimental data. Such methods make various assumptions on the data generating process to facilitate its identification from purely observational data. Continuing this line of research, we show how to discover the complete causal structure of continuous-valued data, under the assumptions that (a) the data generating process is linear, (b) there are no unobserved confounders, and (c) disturbance variables have non-Gaussian distributions of non-zero variances. The solution relies on the use of the statistical method known as independent component analysis, and does not require any pre-specified time-ordering of the variables. We provide a complete Matlab package for performing this LiNGAM analysis (short for Linear Non-Gaussian Acyclic Model), and demonstrate the effectiveness of the method using artificially generated data and real-world data.
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也称为(非参数)结构方程模型(SEMS)的结构因果模型(SCM)被广泛用于因果建模目的。特别是,也称为递归SEM的无循环SCMS,形成了一个研究的SCM的良好的子类,概括了因果贝叶斯网络来允许潜在混淆。在本文中,我们调查了更多普通环境中的SCM,允许存在潜在混杂器和周期。我们展示在存在周期中,无循环SCM的许多方便的性质通常不会持有:它们并不总是有解决方案;它们并不总是诱导独特的观察,介入和反事实分布;边缘化并不总是存在,如果存在边缘模型并不总是尊重潜在的投影;他们并不总是满足马尔可夫财产;他们的图表并不总是与他们的因果语义一致。我们证明,对于SCM一般,这些属性中的每一个都在某些可加工条件下保持。我们的工作概括了SCM的结果,迄今为止仅针对某些特殊情况所知的周期。我们介绍了将循环循环设置扩展到循环设置的简单SCM的类,同时保留了许多方便的无环SCM的性能。用本文,我们的目标是为SCM提供统计因果建模的一般理论的基础。
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模拟DAG模型可能表现出属性,也许无意中,使其结构识别和意外地影响结构学习算法。在这里,我们表明边缘方差往往沿着仿制性添加添加剂噪声模型的因果顺序增加。我们将Varsortable介绍为衡量衡量边际差异和因果顺序的秩序之间的协议。对于通常采样的图形和模型参数,我们表明,一些连续结构学习算法的显着性能可以通过高的Varsortable解释,并通过简单的基线方法匹配。然而,这种性能可能不会转移到真实世界的数据,其中VARS使性可能是中等或取决于测量尺度的选择。在标准化数据上,相同的算法无法识别地面真理DAG或其Markov等价类。虽然标准化在边缘方差中删除了模式,但我们表明,数据产生过程,其产生高VILS使性也留下了即使在标准化之后也可以利用不同的协方差模式。我们的调查结果挑战了独立绘制参数的通用基准的重要性。代码可在https://github.com/scriddie/varsortable获得。
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In this review, we discuss approaches for learning causal structure from data, also called causal discovery. In particular, we focus on approaches for learning directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and various generalizations which allow for some variables to be unobserved in the available data. We devote special attention to two fundamental combinatorial aspects of causal structure learning. First, we discuss the structure of the search space over causal graphs. Second, we discuss the structure of equivalence classes over causal graphs, i.e., sets of graphs which represent what can be learned from observational data alone, and how these equivalence classes can be refined by adding interventional data.
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考虑基于AI和ML的决策对这些新兴技术的安全和可接受的使用的决策的社会和道德后果至关重要。公平,特别是保证ML决定不会导致对个人或少数群体的歧视。使用因果关系,可以更好地实现和衡量可靠的公平/歧视,从而更好地实现了敏感属性(例如性别,种族,宗教等)之间的因果关系,仅仅是仅仅是关联,例如性别,种族,宗教等(例如,雇用工作,贷款授予等) )。然而,对因果关系解决公平性的最大障碍是因果模型的不可用(通常表示为因果图)。文献中现有的因果关系方法并不能解决此问题,并假设可获得因果模型。在本文中,我们没有做出这样的假设,并且我们回顾了从可观察数据中发现因果关系的主要算法。这项研究的重点是因果发现及其对公平性的影响。特别是,我们展示了不同的因果发现方法如何导致不同的因果模型,最重要的是,即使因果模型之间的轻微差异如何对公平/歧视结论产生重大影响。通过使用合成和标准公平基准数据集的经验分析来巩固这些结果。这项研究的主要目标是强调因果关系使用因果关系适当解决公平性的因果发现步骤的重要性。
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Causal disentanglement seeks a representation of data involving latent variables that relate to one another via a causal model. A representation is identifiable if both the latent model and the transformation from latent to observed variables are unique. In this paper, we study observed variables that are a linear transformation of a linear latent causal model. Data from interventions are necessary for identifiability: if one latent variable is missing an intervention, we show that there exist distinct models that cannot be distinguished. Conversely, we show that a single intervention on each latent variable is sufficient for identifiability. Our proof uses a generalization of the RQ decomposition of a matrix that replaces the usual orthogonal and upper triangular conditions with analogues depending on a partial order on the rows of the matrix, with partial order determined by a latent causal model. We corroborate our theoretical results with a method for causal disentanglement that accurately recovers a latent causal model.
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我们分析了在没有特定分布假设的常规设置中从观察数据的学习中学循环图形模型的复杂性。我们的方法是信息定理,并使用本地马尔可夫边界搜索程序,以便在基础图形模型中递归地构建祖先集。也许令人惊讶的是,我们表明,对于某些图形集合,一个简单的前向贪婪搜索算法(即没有向后修剪阶段)足以学习每个节点的马尔可夫边界。这显着提高了我们在节点的数量中显示的样本复杂性。然后应用这一点以在从文献中概括存在现有条件的新型标识性条件下学习整个图。作为独立利益的问题,我们建立了有限样本的保障,以解决从数据中恢复马尔可夫边界的问题。此外,我们将我们的结果应用于特殊情况的Polytrees,其中假设简化,并提供了多项识别的明确条件,并且在多项式时间中可以识别和可知。我们进一步说明了算法在仿真研究中易于实现的算法的性能。我们的方法是普遍的,用于无需分布假设的离散或连续分布,并且由于这种棚灯对有效地学习来自数据的定向图形模型结构所需的最小假设。
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本文考虑了从观察和介入数据估算因果导向的非循环图中未知干预目标的问题。重点是线性结构方程模型(SEM)中的软干预。目前对因果结构的方法学习使用已知的干预目标或使用假设测试来发现即使是线性SEM也可以发现未知的干预目标。这严重限制了它们的可扩展性和样本复杂性。本文提出了一种可扩展和高效的算法,始终识别所有干预目标。关键思想是从与观察和介入数据集相关联的精度矩阵之间的差异来估计干预站点。它涉及反复估计不同亚空间子集中的这些站点。该算法的算法还可用于将给定的观察马尔可夫等效类更新为介入马尔可夫等价类。在分析地建立一致性,马尔可夫等效和采样复杂性。最后,实际和合成数据的仿真结果展示了所提出的可扩展因果结构恢复方法的增益。算法的实现和重现仿真结果的代码可用于\ url {https://github.com/bvarici/intervention- istimation}。
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人们对利用置换推理来搜索定向的无环因果模型的方法越来越兴趣,包括Teysier和Kohler和Solus,Wang和Uhler的GSP的“订购搜索”。我们通过基于置换的操作Tuck扩展了后者的方法,并开发了一类算法,即掌握,这些算法在越来越弱的假设下比忠诚度更有效且方向保持一致。最放松的掌握形式优于模拟中许多最新的因果搜索算法,即使对于具有超过100个变量的密集图和图形,也可以有效,准确地搜索。
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Learning causal structure from observational data often assumes that we observe independent and identically distributed (i.\,i.\,d) data. The traditional approach aims to find a graphical representation that encodes the same set of conditional independence relationships as those present in the observed distribution. It is known that under i.\,i.\,d assumption, even with infinite data, there is a limit to how fine-grained a causal structure we can identify. To overcome this limitation, recent work has explored using data originating from different, related environments to learn richer causal structure. These approaches implicitly rely on the independent causal mechanisms (ICM) principle, which postulates that the mechanism giving rise to an effect given its causes and the mechanism which generates the causes do not inform or influence each other. Thus, components of the causal model can independently change from environment to environment. Despite its wide application in machine learning and causal inference, there is a lack of statistical formalization of the ICM principle and how it enables identification of richer causal structures from grouped data. Here we present new causal de Finetti theorems which offer a first statistical formalization of ICM principle and show how causal structure identification is possible from exchangeable data. Our work provides theoretical justification for a broad range of techniques leveraging multi-environment data to learn causal structure.
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We study experiment design for unique identification of the causal graph of a system where the graph may contain cycles. The presence of cycles in the structure introduces major challenges for experiment design as, unlike acyclic graphs, learning the skeleton of causal graphs with cycles may not be possible from merely the observational distribution. Furthermore, intervening on a variable in such graphs does not necessarily lead to orienting all the edges incident to it. In this paper, we propose an experiment design approach that can learn both cyclic and acyclic graphs and hence, unifies the task of experiment design for both types of graphs. We provide a lower bound on the number of experiments required to guarantee the unique identification of the causal graph in the worst case, showing that the proposed approach is order-optimal in terms of the number of experiments up to an additive logarithmic term. Moreover, we extend our result to the setting where the size of each experiment is bounded by a constant. For this case, we show that our approach is optimal in terms of the size of the largest experiment required for uniquely identifying the causal graph in the worst case.
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因果表示学习是识别基本因果变量及其从高维观察(例如图像)中的关系的任务。最近的工作表明,可以从观测的时间序列中重建因果变量,假设它们之间没有瞬时因果关系。但是,在实际应用中,我们的测量或帧速率可能比许多因果效应要慢。这有效地产生了“瞬时”效果,并使以前的可识别性结果无效。为了解决这个问题,我们提出了ICITRI,这是一种因果表示学习方法,当具有已知干预目标的完美干预措施时,可以在时间序列中处理瞬时效应。 Icitris从时间观察中识别因果因素,同时使用可区分的因果发现方法来学习其因果图。在三个视频数据集的实验中,Icitris准确地识别了因果因素及其因果图。
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We present a new algorithm for Bayesian network structure learning, called Max-Min Hill-Climbing (MMHC). The algorithm combines ideas from local learning, constraint-based, and search-and-score techniques in a principled and effective way. It first reconstructs the skeleton of a Bayesian network and then performs a Bayesian-scoring greedy hill-climbing search to orient the edges. In our extensive empirical evaluation MMHC outperforms on average and in terms of various metrics several prototypical and state-of-the-art algorithms, namely the PC, Sparse Candidate, Three Phase Dependency Analysis, Optimal Reinsertion, Greedy Equivalence Search, and Greedy Search. These are the first empirical results simultaneously comparing most of the major Bayesian network algorithms against each other. MMHC offers certain theoretical advantages, specifically over the Sparse Candidate algorithm, corroborated by our experiments. MMHC and detailed results of our study are publicly available at http://www.dsl-lab.org/supplements/mmhc paper/mmhc index.html.
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因果推断对于跨业务参与,医疗和政策制定等领域的数据驱动决策至关重要。然而,关于因果发现的研究已经与推理方法分开发展,从而阻止了两个领域方法的直接组合。在这项工作中,我们开发了深层端到端因果推理(DECI),这是一种基于流动的非线性添加噪声模型,该模型具有观察数据,并且可以执行因果发现和推理,包括有条件的平均治疗效果(CATE) )估计。我们提供了理论上的保证,即DECI可以根据标准因果发现假设恢复地面真实因果图。受应用影响的激励,我们将该模型扩展到具有缺失值的异质,混合型数据,从而允许连续和离散的治疗决策。我们的结果表明,与因果发现的相关基线相比,DECI的竞争性能和(c)在合成数据集和因果机器学习基准测试基准的一千多个实验中,跨数据类型和缺失水平进行了估计。
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在许多学科中,在大量解释变量中推断反应变量的直接因果父母的问题具有很高的实际意义。但是,建立的方法通常至少会随着解释变量的数量而呈指数级扩展,难以扩展到非线性关系,并且很难扩展到周期性数据。受{\ em Debiased}机器学习方法的启发,我们研究了一种单Vs.-the-Rest特征选择方法,以发现响应的直接因果父母。我们提出了一种用于纯观测数据的算法,同时还提供理论保证,包括可能在周期存在下的部分非线性关系的情况。由于它仅需要对每个变量进行一个估计,因此我们的方法甚至适用于大图。与既定方法相比,我们证明了显着改善。
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